Less than expected. Rabobank has published a report highlighting that, despite the expected drop in tourists in Spain and Italy, pork will not suffer a large decrease in consumption in both countries. According to his analysis, a decrease in total pork consumption of approximately 6% in Spain and 2% in Italy is expected, much less than could be expected given the great drop in tourism in both countries where that industry representing 12% of total GDP.
The period between June and September represents an important part of the annual international tourist activity, that is, 49% in Spain and 58% in Italy, while the fourth quarter represents 19% and 1%, respectively.
In Spain, the estimated decrease of 65,000 metric tons in total consumption is not the greatest decrease observed in the last 15 years.
The limited impact can be explained by the fact that tourism and international tourists are responsible for only part of the food service and retail traffic. The impact may even be less if we consider that more Spanish and Italian people than usual will stay in their country.